Models of prognosis of time series: proposal for aeronautical logistic support for the super tucano fleet

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dc.creatorCalle Rodríguez, María Del Rosario
dc.date2016-10-31
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-17T12:58:29Z
dc.date.available2021-06-17T12:58:29Z
dc.descriptionThe prognosis becomes indispensable in any productive organization, considering that it is the basis of long-term planning in any functional area and therefore a vital tool for management decision-making. The art of forecasting aims to predict the demand for a product or service in such a way that the productive system is efficient and responds to the needs in quantity and opportunity. In the first instance, this article makes a bibliographic tour to describe the context of the forecast, then a documentary revision is carried out in terms of projections of various industrial sectors, and finally the particularity of the forecast is presented in the Colombian Air Force specifically with a proposal for the projection of the demand of the aeronautical logistic support of the fleet of the Super Tucano A-29 team in Combat Air Command No. 2; concluding that the suggested  methodology is not far from the current trends and on the contrary brings together most of them, selecting the best model independently for each component of the fleet, a fact that guarantees a correct inference and that when meeting the established conditions can be extrapolated and standardized for the aeronautical logistic support of the Colombian Air Force, a situation that if presented would generate a high budgetary impact for the Air Force, for the Ministry of Defense and therefore for national public finances, because the costs of logistic support would reflect a decrease from previous periods.eng
dc.descriptionEl pronóstico se hace indispensable en cualquier organización productiva, considerando que se constituye en la base de la planeación a largo plazo en cualquier área funcional, y por tanto, en herramienta vital para la toma de decisiones de la gerencia. El arte de pronosticar pretende predecir la demanda de un producto o servicio de forma tal que el sistema productivo sea eficiente y responda a las necesidades en cantidad, y oportunidad. El presente artículo efectúa en primera instancia un recorrido bibliográfico para describir el contexto del pronóstico, posteriormente se lleva a cabo una revisión documental en cuanto a proyecciones de sectores industriales diversos, y finalmente se presenta la particularidad del pronóstico en la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana específicamente con una propuesta para la proyección de la demanda del soporte logístico aeronáutico de la flota del equipo Súper Tucano A-29 en el Comando Aéreo de Combate No. 2; concluyendo que la metodología sugerida no dista de las tendencias actuales, por el contrario reúne a la mayoría de ellas, seleccionando el mejor modelo de manera independiente para cada componente de la flota, hecho que garantiza una acertada inferencia y que al cumplir las condiciones establecidas puede ser extrapolada y estandarizada para el soporte logístico aeronáutico de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana, situación que de presentarse generaría un alto impacto presupuestal para la Fuerza Aérea, para el Ministerio de Defensa, y por ende, para las finanzas públicas nacionales, en razón a que los costos de soporte logístico reflejarían una disminución respecto a anteriores vigencias.spa
dc.descriptionA previsão torna-se indispensável em qualquer organização produtiva, considerando que é a base do planejamento de longo prazo em qualquer área funcional e, portanto, uma ferramenta vital para a tomada de decisões gerenciais. A arte da previsão visa predizer a demanda por um produto ou serviço de tal forma que o sistema produtivo seja eficiente e responda às necessidades em quantidade e oportunidade. Em primeiro lugar, este artigo faz um percurso bibliográfico para descrever o contexto da previsão, então uma revisão documental é realizada em termos de projeções de vários setores industriais e, finalmente, a particularidade da previsão é apresentada na Força Aérea Colombiana, especificamente com uma proposta para a projeção da demanda do suporte logístico aeronáutico da frota da equipe Super Tucano A-29 no Comando Aéreo de Combate Nº 2; concluindo que a metodologia sugerida não está longe das tendências atuais e, pelo contrário, consegue ter maioria deles, selecionando o melhor modelo independentemente para cada componente da frota, fato que garante uma inferência certa e que cumprindo as condições estabelecidas poderia ser extrapolada e padronizada para o apoio logístico aeronáutico da Força Aérea Colombiana, situação essa que, se acontecer, geraria um alto impacto orçamentário para a Força Aérea, para o Ministério da Defesa e, portanto, para as finanças públicas nacionais, porque os custos de apoio logístico refletiriam uma diminuição em relação aos períodos anteriorespor
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dc.identifierhttps://publicacionesfac.com/index.php/cienciaypoderaereo/article/view/525
dc.identifier10.18667/cienciaypoderaereo.525
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12963/237
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherEscuela de Postgrados de la Fuerza Aérea Colombianaspa
dc.relationhttps://publicacionesfac.com/index.php/cienciaypoderaereo/article/view/525/690
dc.relationhttps://publicacionesfac.com/index.php/cienciaypoderaereo/article/view/525/711
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dc.sourceCiencia y Poder Aéreo; Vol. 11 No. 1 (2016): Enero - Diciembreeng
dc.sourceCiencia y Poder Aéreo; Vol. 11 Núm. 1 (2016): Enero - Diciembrespa
dc.sourceCiencia y Poder Aéreo; v. 11 n. 1 (2016): Enero - Diciembrepor
dc.source2389-9468
dc.source1909-7050
dc.subjectDemandeng
dc.subjectForecasteng
dc.subjectInventorieseng
dc.subjectLogistic Supporteng
dc.subjectResidual Erroreng
dc.subjectTime Serieseng
dc.subjectdemandaspa
dc.subjecterror residualspa
dc.subjectinventariosspa
dc.subjectpronósticospa
dc.subjectseries de tiempospa
dc.subjectsoporte logístico.spa
dc.subjectapoio logísticopor
dc.subjectdemandapor
dc.subjecterro residualpor
dc.subjectinventáriospor
dc.subjectprevisãopor
dc.subjectsérie temporalpor
dc.titleModels of prognosis of time series: proposal for aeronautical logistic support for the super tucano fleeteng
dc.titleModelos de pronósticos de serie de tiempo: propuesta de soporte logístico aeronáutico para la flota Súper Tucanospa
dc.titleSeries de modelos de previsão do tempo: proposta de suporte logístico aeronáutico para a frota super tucanopor
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.typeArtículo de revisiónspa
dc.typeReview articleeng
dc.typeArtigo de revisãopor

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